NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) 000 AXNT20 KNHC 020547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N16W TO 1N30W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-30W AND FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 30W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N80W TO 29N81W TO 28N82W TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N83W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...EXCEPT FOR SOME REMNANT SHOWERS INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO AND OVER THE NW GULF W OF 90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM 25N-27N WEST OF 91W. OTHERWISE ADVECTION FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N WEST OF 89W AND INLAND ALONG THE COAST. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MON MORNING THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM ALABAMA SW TO CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N76W AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ENHANCING BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE ALSO FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NWP MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N80W SW TO 29N81W AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO COASTAL WATERS OF CLEARWATER. MODERATELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N55W AND A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N37W. OTHERWISE... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 05N-26N BETWEEN 36W-59W WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR