NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) 000 AXNT20 KNHC 111152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 0456 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 25-35 KT IN THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N21W TO 3N35W TO THE EQUATOR AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 36W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 2N-5N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 42W- 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KT...AND TO 20 KT AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS. THE FLOW WAS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE RETURN FLOW WAS ADVECTING COPIUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS INDICATED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR DATA. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE TO 28.5N87W. NUMEROUS LIGHTING STRIKES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS WELL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO LINES IN THE VICINITY OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND MOBILE ALABAMA. AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WERE NOTED ALONG THE GULF COAST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED BROAD SW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 100 KT SWEEPING NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CRESTING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG 80W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N95W BY TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN FRESH NW WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE...EXTENDING SWD TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA...SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICTED 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH LIGHTER WINDS...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...S OF JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE VICINITY OF A MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE/SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND WAS NOTABLE S OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FAIRLY STABLE REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... ONLY ISOLATED WARM TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA IN AN OTHERWISE FAIR STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE AREA. THE 0000 UTC SAN JUAN RAOB INDICATED VERY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 725 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 1.48 IN. EXPECT THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 27N40W TO 27N46W. THE FRONT WAS USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE E OF A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 39N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN 45 NM OF 29N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED MAINLY ZONAL W TO NW FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 22N AND W OF 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE REGION S OF 22N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT TROUGH IS PRODUCING A VAST AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 25W- 45W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB